The U.S. shale oil and gas renaissance has effectively stripped Russia from its status as biggest non-OPEC oil producing state. And Russia won’t recover for the next 25 years. Or more, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency.
U.S. oil and gas production is seen going from 9.8 million barrels a day in 2011 to 14.2 million per day in 2020. By then, Russia will produce an average of 10.7 million barrels daily. And while Russia’s oil production will rise by an average of 0.6% year over year between now and 2040, U.S. oil production will be a little bit better, at around 1% growth per year. The EIA has American oil and gas production peaking in 2020, but its inevitable decline will still outpace Russian production. For instance, by 2030, the U.S. is expected to average 13.2 million barrels daily while Russia will be pumping out 11.2 million.
New horizontal drilling technologies have helped make the United States the Saudi Arabia of the Americas. But, the U.S. oil boom will only marginally take away OPEC’s market share.
OPEC will still command 40% of the global oil supply in 2020, down from around 41% today. That market share will rise as U.S. production declines. Of course, EIA doesn’t have a crystal clear crystal ball. No one can truly predict what supply will be like in 2040, let alone six years from now in 2020. In fact, the U.S. shale oil and gas revolution began just seven short years ago. A decade ago, many oil experts were heralded by conspiracy theorists in their belief that peak oil had hit the U.S., and was even the main reason behind the second Iraq War.
Moreover, anyone who thinks the frontier markets in the Middle East will eventually tap out should reconsider, EIA analysts said in a study released in September. According to the EIA, Middle East oil production will go from 25.9 million barrels daily currently to 27.1 million in the next six years. Year over year production increases for the Middle East are pegged at around 1.6%.
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By Kenneth Rapoza