Like the rest of the business world, packaging companies and their customers are eagerly awaiting clarity on measures President-elect Donald Trump will begin to take once in office — which could shape dealmaking and investment decisions in the year to come.
States are also poised to wield their own influence through renewed policymaking and legal efforts. 2025 could also offer greater clarity on how companies see their public-facing sustainability strategies and approaches to plastic reduction evolving in future years.
These are some of the top factors that sources say could influence the year in packaging business, policy and sustainability. What else are you tracking in 2025? Send us an email at packaging.dive.editors@industrydive.com.
Tariffs and potential changes loom under a new administration
Trump is predicted to spur economic and regulatory changes with implications for the packaging industry.
Although tariffs aren’t a new element of U.S. policy (in some cases they’re already affecting certain types of packaging), the president-elect’s proposed strategy could have a much broader effect on the economy.
Analysts from firms such as RaboResearch say that universal baseline tariffs, or tariffs targeting specific countries, could affect overall U.S. inflation rates. There’s potential for tariffs to have an indirect effect on recycled fiber, in turn affecting containerboard, Resource Recycling recently reported. Meanwhile, BofA Research noted that tariffs could potentially give a boost to sectors such as the domestic glass market. And sectors such as flexible packaging are concerned about how tariffs might affect aluminum and related inputs.
Industry groups are also watching and wishing for change in other areas. Multiple trade groups, including some representing packaging manufacturers, signed on to a December letter from the National Association of Manufacturers asking Trump to revisit policies related to PFAS, facility emissions, labor, a global plastic treaty and more.
One key agency to watch will be the U.S. EPA. While some of the EPA’s packaging and recycling-related actions tend to be more advisory, it does have authority to regulate emissions and chemicals, which would directly affect manufacturers. Observers are preparing for potentially sweeping changes in personnel and priorities at the agency in the months ahead.
Meanwhile, observers expect that new leaders overseeing the U.S. Food and Drug Administration with a “Make America Healthy Again” focus could formulate changes in areas like food additives.
Packaging policy negotiations mature
By now, the industry is well-accustomed to plastics and packaging being the subject of sustainability-driven bills across statehouses. 2025 is poised to show how different stakeholders have learned from roadblocks and compromises in past legislative sessions. They’re also learning as states begin to implement EPR, recycled content or other emerging categories of regulation.
This all comes in a shifting political landscape and amid continued conversations about future opportunities for federal harmonization.
It will be a milestone year for EPR, with Oregon as the first guinea pig U.S. state expected to officially start its program. Eyes are also on legislatures in New York, Tennessee and other states to advance EPR bills. Metal packaging proponents again want to see EPR policies developed alongside recycling refund legislation, or deposit return systems, in states including Washington and Illinois.
The trajectory of labeling policy is also a growing concern. With days to go in the Biden administration’s tenure, the Federal Trade Commission remains silent about new updates in the yearslong review of its Green Guides – national guidelines influencing what sustainability claims or disposal symbols can be printed on packaging. Groups have also worked on future bill proposals for Congress that could address what’s often viewed as a problematic patchwork of labeling rules across states.
With those national interests, the packaging industry is looking to grow its voice at the federal level. For example, the Flexible Packaging Association launched a political action committee last year and expects to begin vetting candidates to support, with a focus on congressional races.
Other notable regulatory changes coming in North America include Canada’s buildout of a federal plastics registry tracking the amount of plastic on the market, disposal outcomes and more. Phase one of reporting requirements begins in September.
Businesses also have this year to prepare for the EU’s upcoming Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation, which after some final steps would likely come into force in 2026. Just around the corner are 2030 requirements and targets related to waste reduction, minimum recycled content, lightweighting and reuse.
Industry consolidation advances in North America, with international involvement
Right up until year’s end, 2024 brought large-scale merger and acquisition announcements. This activity shows no sign of slowing, at least in early 2025, as analysts point to an uptick in M&A following a relatively modest period. And the influence of international companies on the North American market is expected to grow.
While fiber companies initially dominated the 2024 megadeal discussions, plastic packaging producers made their presence known by year’s end. Multiple megadeals are projected to close in 2025, including International Paper’s acquisition of DS Smith and Novolex’s acquisition of Pactiv Evergreen.
Brazil-based Suzano unsuccessfully made a play for International Paper early in 2024, and then it broke into the U.S. market by acquiring two Pactiv Evergreen mills in Q4. Suzano is rumored to be considering submitting an offer for Washington-based Clearwater Paper, after repeatedly expressing its desire for expansion in North America.
Some analysts have said that greater consolidation could hurt competitive dynamics in certain packaging sectors. M&A dynamics also face potential changes due to expectations that the Trump administration could loosen antitrust regulation.
Facility footprint decisions could be swayed by changing federal incentives
In the new year, companies’ decisions to open, close or invest in facilities may hinge in part on industry consolidation and new leadership in Washington, D.C.
Some company executives have expressed concern that infrastructure funding offered under the Biden administration will dry up, such as money allocated for procuring energy-efficient or lower carbon manufacturing equipment. But others believe that potential tax breaks or incentives expected under Trump could fuel equipment purchasing and footprint expansion decisions.
By Maria Rachal, Katie Pyzyk, and Cole Rosengren
Source: packagingdive.com
Südpack and BASF Gastronomy are providing meat and sausage packaging to butcher Werz. The thermoformed packaging is produced with BASF’s polyamide Ultramid Ccycled. BASF says that the Ultramid Ccycled is a mass-balanced drop-in product that can be integrated into existing production systems and processes.
Greiner Packaging has joined forces with Veritas Edukasi Lingkungan (VEL), an Indonesian NGO focused on environmental education, to support SampApp, VEL’s digital learning platform designed to make waste education more accessible across diverse communities in Indonesia.
SIG is expanding its partnership with Libyan United Beverage Bottling Company (LUBBC) to boost LUBBC’s production capabilities, increase local market volumes, and enhance export opportunities. SIG’s filling lines are said to support LUBBC’s expansion plans and meet the growing regional demand for safe and high-quality beverages.
